Action: Identify the major trends in your market that have already appeared. Write a page on their longevity and impact on your life and organization. Peter F. Drucker. What do you "know you know about your business". Now test it in different futures against things that have already happened. Peter Schwartz "The Art of the Long View" - 1996
As you have, no-doubt, guessed by now, I love Dr. Peter Drucker (more of that in the year to come). Even though he has now passed away, he continues to, significantly impact my managerial (and other) behavior. Most recently, while I was setting up my new Non Profit 501 3 c), I read his book "Managing Non-Profits". In it he tells a story of how the founder of a famous private University in California ensured the future funding for his organization. He did "favors" for his students, (actually he was a genius at start-ups, which he then gave to the most promising graduates). When they asked what he wished for in return, he simply said "remember your alma mater when the time comes"... genius. I have done the same, by mentoring young business owners, and have never lacked for financial or other support for the charity. However, as did the venerable Doctor frequently, I seem to move off topic.
Niels Bohr said: "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Maybe, Yogi Berra used a similar phrase. The genius in Dr. Drucker's approach is the basis of what today constitutes Strategic gaming...You don't have to predict a future. One of the most useful techniques I have seen employed to help prepare for the future. The trick is not to try to predict a definitive future, but as Dr. Drucker suggests, take what is currently known, project known trends, and then "live" in those future scenarios together with your business team, testing all your critical assumptions. NOT, in order to predict the future, but to recognize when "one of the futures" you have "played" in starts to materialize. The outcome of such "game-playing", if done correctly is to speed the response of your team... you become faster... 'cause "you've been there before".
Example: A global mining conglomerate asked the right question several years ago... "What do our worlds look like if Copper price goes above $1?" (you can tell it was some time ago). Their operationally excellent management team put their minds to work to develop those scenarios broadly and deeply, and did a fantastic job predicting the realistic futures. As a result they became very very fast in their response to the unfolding reality. Their return to shareholders has been leading the industry. The nice thing is... once you have done it once... you can do it again and again.
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