Crossing the Divide

"Crossing the divide into new realities" Peter F. Drucker

Action: Next time you hear colleagues pounding the table for something that is clearly yesterday's news, find a way to tell them they need to wake up and smell the coffee. Peter F. Drucker

Again, I refer you to Geoffrey Moore (especially if you are in a tech business) Crossing the Chasm by Geoffrey A. Moore , Living on the Fault Line, Revised Edition: Managing for Shareholder Value in Any Economy by Geoffrey A. Moore .

Dr. Drucker speaks of significant discontinuities which befall us every so often, take 50 years to run their course, and when they are complete, and our 'lives' come out the back end, we can't even imagine how those that went before us lived, worked, socialized... everything has changed. While we are in "the Chasm" the turbulence of the "Tornado" is incredible. Looking back across the "Divide" afterwards, is meaningless, 'spilt milk' so to say. So, the eminent discontinuity finder, Dr. Drucker.

We are living in one of those time periods now. It is defined by the following equation:

• CC = (1/CS)**2 - The Cost of Computing (CC) is the inverse exponential function of the Cost of Switches (CS) or transistors - Or a variation on Moore's law.

This equation means that we are moving from a world where computing power was expense to where computing power costs $0.00 (Zero, nada, nichts, rien, no matter where you live). The no matter where you live is important, because this very same equation underlies a secondary impact, which means free, ubiquitous (everywhere) communications among people. Wow, picture your business (not difficult as we approach 50 years of consumer computing) at ZERO cost of communications.

Just ask any auto salesman how he feels about the information explosion in her business. Most businesses have to some extent been "information democratized". Actually, they won't remember how it used to be.

Importantly, especially in the next 10 years, watch undemocratic governments deal and rail with and against the democratization forces/powers of instant, free, and ubiquitous communications. We already see the "BIG BOY", China trying to counter this inevitable trend. How much strife will this bring? Is it bigger than the crusades? Will there be too much data noise to make any good decisions at all?

So, as you approach you daily Drucker Action Item, also look at your business, and project it operating in a world where everybody knows everything about you, as it happens. How will you take advantage of the trend, and how will you avoid being left on the other side of the divide or, even worse, tumbling into the Chasm?

Wow, it is cold on the mainland!