Shrinking of the Younger Population

"The next society will be with us shortly" Peter F. Drucker

Action: "Determine whether your organization is betting on young people, older people, or immigrants. Make sure you have a plan for the gradual decrease in the youth market and the increase in newcomers and the aged." Peter F. Drucker

"What did you say? My hearing isn't what it used to be" Bruce Klassen

All told, some 59 countries, comprising roughly 44 percent of the world's total population, are currently not producing enough children to avoid population decline, and the phenomenon continues to spread. By 2050, according to the latest United Nations projections, 75 percent of all countries in even under-developed regions will be reproducing at below replacement levels. I think I am correct in saying that only West African populations (Nigeria,Ghana) are currently growing at or beyond the 2.2 (live children per adult couple) replacement rate.

• Except for France, Western Europe needs 1.1 million immigrants a year above the current level to keep the working-age population stable between now and 2015.
• Japan's population fell by 75,000 in 2009, decreasing for the third straight year and dropping at the fastest rate since the end of World War II.
• Former Soviets are dying in record numbers from disease, suicide and substance abuse, and the top 10 fastest declining regions are all former Soviet Union States.
• Taiwan's population could start falling by 2017, a decade earlier than previously estimated, after the island's birth rate dropped to the world's lowest level.
• Even though the Mid-East still has a large bulge in the 25 to 30 age group, overall the populations are aging, and immigration is a striking drain on brainpower and the youth in those countries.

Additionally, in 2002, Babson College and the London School of Business released their latest index of entrepreneurial activity by country. It shows that there is a distinct correlation between countries with a high ratio of workers-to-retirees and countries with a high degree of entrepreneurship, and that conversely, in countries in which a large share of the population is retired, the amount of new business formation is low. So, for example, among the most entrepreneurial countries on earth are India and China, where (at least for now) there are roughly five people of working age for every person of retirement age. Meanwhile, Japan and France are among the least entrepreneurial countries on earth and have among the lowest ratio of workers-to-retirees.

Indeed, according to a study by the United Nations Population Division, in order to maintain the current ratio of workers to retirees in the United States over time, it would be necessary to absorb an average of 10.8 million immigrants annually through 2050. At that point, the U.S. population would be 1.1 billion, 73 percent of whom would be immigrants who had arrived in this country since 1995 or their descendants (Source: New America.net 2004). Just housing such a flow would require the equivalent of building another New York City every 10 months. Not to mention, where would these young immigrants come from given the global demographic problem.

Not since the decline of the Roman (World) Empire have we seen such a shift in demographics. If you have not considered this shift in your 30 year plan, you may want to get going, soon you may not remember. ;-)

Insurance products for the aging, along with all types of health enhancing and supporting products and services will be winners. That said, should I put my name down for an Apple iPad? I've never lined up for anything other than my citizenship ceremony.